Prepared for Manish Chopra by Henry Obegi

Sodexo S.A. (SW.PA) — Deep Dive Analysis

Euronext Paris • Contract Catering & Facilities Management • February 2026

Positive Catalysts

CatalystTimingProbabilityImpact
CEO Strategic PlanJun-Jul 2026 95% +10-25%
NA Turnaround SignalsApr-Aug 2026 50% +5-15%
FM Strategic ReviewH2 2026 65% +15-25%
Margin Catch-up to 5.5%FY2028-29 40% +30-60%
Activist InvestorAnytime 20% +10-20%

Negative Catalysts / Risks

RiskTimingProbabilityImpact
NA Continued DeteriorationFY2026 25% -10-20%
Margin StagnationFY2026-27 20% -15-25%
CEO Strategy DisappointsSummer 2026 25% -5-15%
Recession Hits B&IAnytime 20% -15-25%
Dividend CutFY2027 10% -20-30%

Critical Event Calendar

Apr 10, 2026
H1 FY2026 Results — First real test of Delaporte. Q2 NA organic growth is the key data point. CEO gives initial strategic views.
Jun-Jul 2026
CEO Strategic Plan — Full assessment before summer break. FM review, margin targets, capital allocation framework. Most important catalyst
Jul 2026
Q3 FY2026 Revenue — Second data point on NA trajectory and growth recovery.
Oct 2026
FY2026 Results — Full-year transition year results. Sets the baseline for FY2027 guidance.
H2 2026
Potential Capital Markets Day — If Delaporte announces one, it signals confidence in the turnaround plan.

What the Market is Pricing In

At EUR 48 / 10x P/E, the market implies:
  • Zero earnings growth — permanently
  • No margin improvement — 4.5-4.7% forever
  • No benefit from CEO change
  • No value for RoW segment growing at 10%+
  • Perpetuity UOP margin of ~3.2% (COVID-era levels)
What needs to go RIGHT for re-rating:
  • NA organic growth turns positive (even +1%)
  • CEO announces credible margin targets (5.5%+ medium-term)
  • FM strategic review initiated
  • Any one of these = partial re-rating to 12-13x P/E

Probability-Weighted Expected Return

~46%
3Y Price Appreciation
~17%
3Y Cumulative Dividends
~63%
3Y Total Return
~18%
Annualized
Henry Obegi • Sodexo Deep Dive • February 2026 • Prepared for Manish Chopra