Consensus Snapshot
Complete capitulation. Zero active Buy ratings among 9 recent analysts. Consensus target of EUR 48.34
is the current price — the sell-side equivalent of "we have no idea." Price targets collapsed 45-50% in 12 months
(from EUR 85-95 to EUR 48). This is a rout, not a gradual drift.
Adversarial Thesis Grading
Key Claims — Independently Verified
What the Consensus is Missing
1. Rest of World growth: +10.2% organic in Q1 FY2026 (India, Brazil, Australia). Nobody is valuing this segment.
2. NA weakness is company-specific (fixable): Compass and Aramark grow 6-7% in the same market.
Consensus treats it as permanent — wrong diagnosis.
3. FCF yield is PE territory: Normalized ~8.5-9.3%. A PE firm would see a stable, cash-generative
business with identifiable improvement levers. Family control blocks a take-private, but the valuation is below PE levels.
4. Zero probability assigned to improvement: Even modest 30bps margin improvement = ~EUR 72m additional
operating profit = ~EUR 50m net income = ~7% EPS growth. The consensus assigns zero probability to this.
Verdict on Analyst Quality
Mediocre and herd-like. Every analyst runs the same Sodexo-vs-Compass framework. Nobody asks contrarian
questions. Targets cluster suspiciously at the current price. Stale Buy ratings from early 2025 pollute the broader consensus.
Most rigorous: UBS (Ivar Billfalk-Kelly) — correctly identified "investment year" risk.
Least rigorous: Berenberg — maintained Buy with EUR 71 PT while stock was in freefall.